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john4525 · Wysłany: Śro 4:48, 09 Mar 2011 Temat postu: Based on data from Miller1988

son in prior years to construct a seasonal
factor
which is a number either greater than or less than one by which the current
?gure is multiplied. According to the U.S. Department of Labor (1992p. 243)“The
standard practice at BLS for current seasonal adjustment of dataas it is initially
releasedis to use projected seasonal factors which are published ahead of time.” In
other wordswhen ?gures such as the Consumer Price Index become available for a
given monththe BLS already knows the amount by which the ?gures should be
adjusted up or down to account for the seasonal component.
Irregular Cycles and Random Fluctuations
There are two r [link widoczny dla zalogowanych][link widoczny dla zalogowanych]ining components of time series: theirregular(but smooth)
cycles that economic systems tend to follow and unexplainable random ?uctuations.
It is often hard to distinguish bet[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]n these two componentsespecially if the cycles
are not regular.
246Part 2 / Finding Life inData
Ja
n
u
a
ry
u
n
e
m
p
lo
ym
e
n
t
(i
n
p
e
rc
e
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t)
8.0
6.4
4.8
3.2
19541960196619721978
Year
FIGURE 14.4
An example of a time
series with irregular
cycles:Adjusted
January unemployment
rates1950�1982
Source:Based on data from
Miller1988yilai:
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]

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